(oil products: Xu Lei)

Background: in this pricing cycle, international crude oil fluctuates mainly in narrow range, Brent crude oil mainly fluctuates above 80 US dollars / barrel, and the upward pressure of crude oil is on the strong side. The recent rate of change of crude oil has continued to operate in a negative range, and the corresponding retail price limit for oil products is expected to be reduced. 24:00 on May 15, the domestic retail price limit for oil products may open an adjustment window, and it will also usher in the first "two consecutive falls" of the year.

Zhuochuang information point of view: in the new round of price adjustment cycle, the two major crude oil futures indicators fluctuated downwards in a narrow range. Mainly due to the delayed expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, as well as the outlook for oil demandGgpokerdownloadHowever, OPEC + Alliance voluntarily extended production reduction measures in the second half of the year, as well as the tension in the Middle East has not eased, bringing some positive support to crude oil, but the dominance of short factors has led to lower crude oil prices. The current round of crude oil changes within a narrow range of negative range, and retail prices of refined oil continue to be in a downward forecast. According to the Zhuangchuang information data monitoring model, as of the close on May 14, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil on the 10th working day was-5.GgpokerdownloadGasoline and diesel are expected to be reduced by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, and the price increase for gasoline, gasoline and diesel oil will be reduced by 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan and 0.19 yuan respectively. The price adjustment window will be 24:00 on May 15, 2024. If the current round of retail price limit for refined oil is confirmed, private cars will spend 9 yuan less after filling up a box of 50L fuel at a time, and residents' self-driving travel costs will be further reduced by two consecutive declines. The logistics industry will run 10000 kilometers per month. Heavy trucks with fuel consumption of 38L for 100 kilometers, for example, before the opening of the next price adjustment window, the fuel cost of a single car will be reduced by more than 337 yuan, and logistics and transportation costs will decline again.

If the current round of retail price adjustment of refined oil is confirmed, the retail price of domestic oil products will be lowered for the third time this year, and it will also be the first "two consecutive falls" this year, but retail prices have still risen more or less since the opening of the price adjustment window this year. After the 24:00 price adjustment window opened on May 15, the domestic refined oil retail price adjustment window opened a total of 10 rounds of price adjustment window in 2024, of which five rounds of upward window, three rounds of downward window and two rounds of price adjustment window ran aground. After the trade-off, the cumulative increase of gasoline is 570 yuan per ton, equivalent to 0.45 yuan per liter, and that of diesel fuel is 550 yuan per ton, equivalent to 0.47 yuan per liter. After the opening of this round of price adjustment window, the retail price of domestic gasoline in the mainstream terminal is around 8 yuan / liter, and the retail price of gasoline is still slightly higher than that of the same period last year.

Future forecast: us PPI growth in April was higher than expected, US interest rates remained high, exacerbating concerns about the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and continued pressure on crude oil prices, but the uncertainty of tensions in the Middle East made the supply side tight and crude oil was expected to fall slowly. In the next round, according to the current crude oil prices, the rate of change after recalculation is still in a negative range, and the retail price of oil products is expected to be reduced in the initial stage of price adjustment, and the price adjustment window is 24:00 on May 29th. International crude oil changes greatly, and the specific range will be tracked at any time.